What will sell, what to target? Why the low prices

[Tim Rose]

Things we know

FHA sitting on 100,000 coon
Nafa Sitting on + 250,000 coon
Another 150,000 coon in dealer/country buyer hands

+ or - 500,000 coon in the system before new season starts

Long hairs (Fox & yote) have seen less interest in the world market place. Yote inventory huge with unsold goods.

Beaver Castor is strong and with a short harvest this year should remain that way.

Ranch mink still is selling @ 100% clearances.
Quote from Sandy Parker : "The mink price structure, which plunged at the season's February sales, has been holding steady at about 25% or 30% below last year's peaks and the final offerings are anticipated to remain mostly at those levels."

Ranch mink clearances and selling level doesn't mean we will see same clearances/levels on wild fur.

Russia, still not coming to the table

Muskrat & Beaver are basically sold out along with most of the wild male mink (both FHA & Nafa).

So, in my opinion and after speaking with FHA if you are to target a critter that will a "sell" this upcoming season it would be at minimum Rats & Beaver.

Beaver sold cheap last year, and may move at those levels unless a shortage boots buyer bids.
Muskrat was holding firm until last auction where they were moved at lower levels (I believe) to deplete inventory by nafa, which in turn carried over into the FHA sale where rats sold better, but were still off.

Things we don't know

How many trappers/coon hunters will sell fur local at levels being kicked around for this upcoming season.

Will last years goods remain unsold?

Will the economy turn around for Russia?

500,000 coon is squat compared to the millions of ranch mink sold. Why don't they sell?

Is ranch mink our friend or enemy?

Will the rumored beaver dressing problems be resolved? or is this just spin for the lower prices received.

who is hurting our wild fur market (besides the economy)

Will possums and squirrel sell?

[furbuy46]

Good report Tim.

[DaveM]

Things we don't know

How many trappers/coon hunters will sell fur local at levels being kicked around for this upcoming season.

Will last years goods remain unsold?

Will the economy turn around for Russia?

500,000 coon is squat compared to the millions of ranch mink sold. Why don't they sell?

Is ranch mink our friend or enemy?

Will the rumored beaver dressing problems be resolved? or is this just spin for the lower prices received.

who is hurting our wild fur market (besides the economy)

Will possums and squirrel sell?
[/quote]



very few
yes
no
nobody wants em
enemy
eventually
dont know
some, for very little


If I had my choice, I would target beaver this year.
They are scarce here, I get 10 or 12 a year.

The few that I shipped averaged in the 20s
The few I sold green at 7B sale averaged 17.50.
And the castor market looks good.

I did keep my couple smallest and and tanned, so the above is higher than my true average would be.

[furbuy46]

Dave if something don't change in the beaver market. you will be lucky to average 12 bucks on beaver this year. I bought beaver last year in the twenty dollar range on good put up beaver and some nice large green was bought in the 15-18 range last year.
I promise you , I won;t be doing that this year and I doubt any country buyers will be doin anything close to that either.
Most all country buyers got their tail burnt on beaver last year. If you bought any quantity of beaver last year , you was lucky to sell them for much over 11 bucks.

[DaveM]

Don, thanks for that info. I always respect your root and fur market thoughts and appreciatte you sharing them with us.

I had a couple 17 pounders that I kept and tanned, and that would have done a lot to get my average where you are talking about.


I told Tim this last year, and this year looks worse. I would be scare to death to be a buyer, especially now, and you guys got my respect.

[treerodent]

Thanks for the info guys. Always like seeing what you think of the market.

[furandhides]

I would buy some nice blanket beaver, now, at $30. I will buy good rats, now, $4.00. We buy fur year around. Fur house open for fresh goods Oct.25. Big coon, green, carcass or skins $8-10. Selects up to $15. Forty years plus buy fur here in Mi..

[DaveM]

Wish you was closer.

[Tim Rose]

Sounds like a road trip

[furbuy46]

(I could furnish some real nice So. Ind. product for that kind of money. great put up fur and a guarantee to go with it.

[furandhides]

The beaver and rats could work. No interest in coon from that section.

[MKBorders]

Took the canoe out yesterday to prospect the line. Farm fields flooded early this year (again). So as last year a large area of muskrat habitat went under water for the long term. What normally happens in this situation is all the down stream rats get pushed up into my area (only unflooded stream banks left).

Looks like muskrat again this year.