Post by doyleflory on Nov 3, 2015 9:01:28 GMT -5
Wild Fur Forecast – Fall 2015
October 6, 2015
Scandinavian September Sales Show Huge Losses
The Scandinavian ranched mink sales in Helsinki and Copenhagen have just concluded and the results were shocking. Ranch raised mink dropped 20% to 50% from this year’s June levels, which had already dropped from this year’s January levels. The mink decline was more severe than expected and was a result of what is now believed to be an overproduction of middle and commercial types of ranch raised mink in the world. The September results, if they were to stay, would mean that a significant portion of ranched mink is now being sold well below cost price.
China, which is the largest buyer of ranched mink in the world, bought 95% of the mink offering, with no support from Russia to speak of.
The Russian economy, despite what Mr. Putin says, is in real trouble. In September 2014 the Russian ruble was below 30 to $1 U.S. and now is closer to 70 to $1 U.S. Consumer confidence is extremely low and the middle class is struggling financially. The cost of living has gone up and people need every penny just to make ends meet. Disposable income for most Russians is extremely limited. This scenario is much worse than what we had expected 8 months ago.
For many of our fur products, wild fur in particular, we need a healthy economy in Russia that has purchasing power. Unfortunately, we are not seeing this at the moment and are not very optimistic in the short term.
Overall, there is a very negative atmosphere amongst the international fur trade, which can only be changed by better than expected retail sales and a cold winter.
With market conditions as they are, low grades, damages and inferior goods have no commercial value. The cost of shipping, importing and dressing these goods make it such that buyers will not purchase them and they will remain unsalable.
Raccoon – Raccoon needs a healthy Russia, which is not in the cards for the foreseeable future. They will need to find new usages, which in a depressed market is a difficult task. We are increasing our efforts in China, especially with all of the larger trimming companies and will keep you updated on any progress. All summer and ongoingly, our promotional department has been working with leading Italian and French fashion companies to put raccoon on the runways.
Muskrat – the low mink prices, especially in commercial goods, will mostly like have an effect on the price of muskrat. Small sizes and low grades will have no value and should not be shipped.
Beaver – as they are still not expensive, larger sizes will be saleable and the heavy shearing types will bring premiums. Smaller sizes should not be shipped.
Coyote – Western section, good quality, pale colour, silky pelts should again bring premiums as this is one of the preferred trimming items for down filled jackets. Again, all desirable coyotes will be sold 100%. In the Eastern sections, better quality, heavier sections can be sold for trimming, but darker, coarse, flatter pelts and inferior qualities will be impossible to sell.
Lynx – good quality, clear coloured lynx should be very saleable, while off colour, poorer qualities will be discounted.
Lynx Cat – Good colours, with clearly defined spots will bring premiums. Off colour, flatter types will be in demand, but at reduced prices.
Fisher – female fisher should again expect good demand as China has found this product to be attractive and fashionable. Males, which historically have been sold to Russia, will be impacted.
Sable/Marten – price adjustments should be expected, but for our Northern shippers, the Canadian exchange rate will help soften the blow. Larger size, heavy, good quality goods will continue to bring premiums. This article is still very much in fashion.
Red Fox – heavy sections, good colours, will continue to receive premiums, while flatter sizes will be difficult.
Again, we cannot reiterate enough that under present market conditions it does not pay you or NAFA to handle low grades, damages and inferior goods, as well as small size beaver, muskrat and raccoon.
Many things have changed over the last 12 months. In September of last year we sold upwards of 350,000 raccoons along with other wild furs. At that time, they were purchased by manufacturers in China and Russia, but all however, for end use in the Russian retail market. Unfortunately, most of these skins are in either unsold garments, or remain in the manufacturers’ inventory. This year, we cancelled our September sale due to the poor market conditions.
We realize that we have a disappointing unsold inventory from this past selling season, a large part of which, other than raccoon, are low grades, inferiors and small sizes. All of these goods have been catalogued and posted on our website for Private Treaty sale.
Our marketing and promotional teams will be travelling in all of the most important fur markets of the world over the next six weeks. We will then analyze the market conditions for each of our wild fur products and will put together a marketing strategy that will have saleability and high clearances as the most important aspect.
As the largest wild fur auction company in the world, we recognize our responsibility towards our producers. We want to assure you that we will continue to do everything we possibly can to see us through this difficult period.
Please check our website, www.nafa.ca, as we will be posting updates on a regular basis throughout the fall.
Herman Jansen
Managing Director
Wild Fur Forecast- Fall 2015-PDF
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